Terrorists Can Not Win

When the terrorist operatives of Islamic State have already captured a big part of the Middle East and such Islamist groups as Boko Haram spread fear and terror in West Africa, the postulate of almighty terrorism is perceived as the obvious truth. It means that terrorism is effective, doesn’t it? 

“On the contrary, indiscriminate attacks against civilians cause fear, but they are not effective”,  says Professor Paige Fortney   from Columbia University.

Professor Fortney’s opinion is based on the large-scale study, the results of which she presented on the pages of the American magazine International Organization.

Here is what is new is her article. For the first time, this expert on terrorism has set the task to compare the methods and success of terrorist groups with the activity of militant but not terrorist groups. Professor Fortney has evaluated the activity 104 radical rebel groups that in the period from 1989 to 2004 were involved in the conflicts similar to a civil war.

The results of the study are clear: the use of terrorist violence reduces the probability of success of the rebels’ campaigns. At the same time, terrorist methods reduce the chances of reaching peaceful agreements with concessions from the other side. “None of the studied groups, whose fighters in terrorist operations have killed a large number of civilians could win the war”, the study emphasized.

“The short answer to the question of whether the terrorists can win is: ”No, they can’t.” Although terrorist attacks are an inexpensive way to hurt the enemy and to draw attention, such tactical advantages then turn into strategic disadvantages. Why is that? “Because in any civil war, the question of legitimacy mainly matters,” notes Fortney.

Nevertheless, armed groups continue to rely on terrorist violence. Why? Fortney’s study provides the answer to this question. Although the use of terrorist violence does not lead his followers to victory, it helps to strengthen a terrorist organization and give it organizational survival.

“The main lesson of the conducted research is that we have less to be afraid of the potential victory of such terrorist groups as  Islamic state or  Boko Haram”, she said.

In view of the continuing armed clashes with the Islamic state, with Boko Haram and  Al Qaeda the prospects are not the most optimistic. Fortney warns: “Another lesson of my work is that ongoing wars will continue. We will not be able to get rid of the terrorist groups for a long time. “

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Naij.com. 

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